2017
Urdinez, F., & Rodrigues, P. (2017). Trapped in Proto-Bipolarism? Brazilian Perceptions of an Emerging Chinese-American Rivalry. Rising Powers Quarterly, Volume 2, Issue 2. Brazil: Geopolitical Challenges in a Multipolar World, 105-123.
Abstract: With the use of recent survey data, we empirically test a simple proposition that has strong impacts in terms of policymaking, both in Brazil and China: that the more Brazilians become aware of a post-hegemonic scenario in which the United States loses pre-eminence, the more China will be able to sell itself as a trustworthy partner. Although only 36 percent of Brazilians feel China is such a trustworthy partner, those who prefer a scenario in which China surpasses the United States economically have odds between 2.5 and 3.5 higher of trusting China. Brazilians, we believe, will reshape their opinion towards China gradually, as Chinese economic statecraft “wins hearts and minds”.
| rising-powers-quarterly-volume-2-issue-2.pdf |
Jenne, N., Schenoni, L. L., & Urdinez, F. (2017). Of words and deeds: Latin American declaratory regionalism, 1994–2014. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 1-21.
Abstract: The idea of an integrated Latin American region goes back to the early post-independence period, and yet, in substance, Latin American regionalism has remained far behind its stated aims. The perceived implementation gap has raised the question why policymakers continued to talk about something they appeared to avoid in practice. This article contributes to the debate on Latin America’s integration gap by exploring the phenomenon of declaratory regionalism - the practice of referring to the region and its institutions in political speeches. Based on quantitative text analysis of the speeches presidents delivered annually at the UN’s General Assembly between 1994 and 2014, we show that this practice has not been uniform. Presidents distinguish between different forms of regionalism, integration and cooperation, and frame the geographical region they refer to accordingly. In motivating presidents to speak about integration as opposed to cooperation, ideology and democratic performance stand out as crucial factors.
| jenne_nicole__schenoni_luis_leandro__urdinez_francisco_--_of_words_and_deeds-_latin_american_declar.pdf |
Ribeiro, P. F., & Urdinez, F. (2017). Are there two presidents in Argentina? A comparative analysis of legislative support for foreign and domestic policy (2001-2014). Revista De Ciencia Política, 37(1), 95-119.
Abstract: This paper makes two contributions to the classical thesis in American Political Science on the existence of “two presidents”, as applied to the Argentine case. Analyzing rollcall votes for the recent period, we confirm the validity of the thesis in a markedly presidential and multiparty system. Furthermore, comparing international and domestic legislative topics, we analyze which factors affect the legislative support received by the president. Using robust regressions, we find that popular approval is positively associated with the level of support that the president received for domestic but not international initiatives. The use of
Necessity and Urgency Decrees, the economy’s performance, the ideological polarization between the parties in Congress, and the chamber in which the initiative is submitted are all variables that affect legislative support.
Necessity and Urgency Decrees, the economy’s performance, the ideological polarization between the parties in Congress, and the chamber in which the initiative is submitted are all variables that affect legislative support.
| 05-feliu-rcp-371.pdf |
Duanmu, J. L., & Urdinez, F. (2017). The dissuasive effect of US political influence on Chinese FDI during the “Going Global” policy era. Business and Politics, 1-32.
DOI: 10.1017/bap.2017.5
Abstract: Building on the growing debate on political determinants of foreign direct investment, we investigate the relationship between U.S. political influence and the global distribution of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Using country-level and firm-level datasets of China's greenfield investment, we find strong evidence that Chinese state controlled firms strategically reduce investment in host countries under significant political influence of the United States. Our results are robust to alternative specification and two falsification tests. The findings suggest that the Chinese government uses FDI as a way of economic diplomacy.
| duanmu_jing-lin__urdinez_francisco_--_the_dissuasive_effect_of_u.s._political_influence_on_chinese_fdi.pdf |
2016
Urdinez, F. et. al. (2016). Don’t Cry for me "Argenchina": Unraveling Political Views of China through Legislative Debates in Argentina. Chinese Journal of Political Science, ahead of publication. doi:10.1007/s11366-016-9450-y.
Abstract: This study seeks to explain the profound discord currently observable in elite political discourse on Chinese investments in many host countries. Using Argentina as a case study, a combination of quantitative content analysis and qualitative discourse analysis was employed to analyze parliamentary speeches on a controversial space-monitoring station built there by China in 2015. The study finds that the competing discourses about China in Argentinean politics draw primarily on locally embedded contexts and the region’s particular historical experiences and geopolitical position. These local narratives are used in different ways by both sides of the debate to support contradicting positions on relevant issues. Questions of regional hegemony, center-periphery relations, national autonomy as well as Peronist and anti-Peronist ideologies are being drawn on by elite politicians in an attempt to cope with the deep uncertainty about what China’s increased engagement means for the country and to compensate for the lack of predictability about China’s behavior in its future role as a major global power. Ultimately, however, Argentina’s elite politicians end up in a dilemma in which these narratives and historical memories can be spun in both ways to either support or reject a controversial investment project to go ahead on domestic soil that is, at the same time, a symbolic test for the potential depth of the future relationship with China.
| urdinez_dont_cry_for_me_argenchina.pdf |
Mouron, F. et. al. (2016). Sin espacio para todos: China y la competencia por el Sur. Revista CIDOB d´afers internacionals, 114, 17-39.
Abstract: Transcurrida más de una década y media del «siglo asiático», el epicentro de la economía mundial se ha trasladado del Atlántico Norte hacia Asia Oriental a un ritmo sin precedentes. Como correlato, la creciente expansión china a nivel global ha ido minando paulatinamente la posición de primeras potencias regionales a países como Brasil y Sudáfrica. El desplazamiento de sus inversiones y la consiguiente pérdida de sus mercados regionales, sumado al crecimiento de otras potencias medias regionales por el fortalecimiento de sus vínculos con Beijing, han empañado las perspectivas de liderazgo regional de ambos países. Desde esta perspectiva, a diferencia de la abundante literatura que apunta a China como la gran oportunidad para estos dos países, en este trabajo se advierte de que tanto Brasil como Sudáfrica han visto mermada su relevancia regional en favor de China, lo que a su vez pone en cuestión la utilidad del concepto BRICS.
| 17-40_fernando_mouron_francisco_urdinez_y_luis_schenoni_1_.pdf |
Urdinez, F. et al. (2016). Chinese Economic Statecraft and US Hegemony in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis, 2003-2014. Latin American Politics and Society, 58(4), 3-30.
Abstract: If one interprets China’s sizable rise in Latin America as an unprecedented phenomenon, it follows that the concurrent story of declining U.S. influence in the region is an event hastily acknowledged at best and ignored at worst. In this article, we ask whether Chinese economic statecraft in Latin America is related to the declining U.S. hegemonic influence in the region and explore how. To do so we analyze foreign direct investments, bank loans, and international trade from 2003 to 2014, when China became a major player in the region. We use data from 21 Latin American countries, and find that an inversely proportional relationship exists between the investments made by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), bank loans, manufacturing exports, and the U.S. hegemonic influence exerted in the region. In other words, Beijing has filled the void left by a diminished U.S. presence in the latter’s own backyard.
| urdinez_et_al-2016-latin_american_politics_and_society.pdf |
Urdinez, F., Burian, C. L., & de Oliveira, A. J. (2016). MERCOSUR and the Brazilian Leadership Challenge in the Era of Chinese Growth: A Uruguayan Foreign Policy Perspective. New Global Studies, 10(1), 1-25.
Abstract: In recent years, China has expanded its presence in Latin America leading to increased trade flows, foreign direct investment, and bilateral cooperation agreements. At the same time, Brazil has attempted to emerge as a global player from its belief in itself as a regional leader. While both countries are part of the emerging South, they are also competing for influence in the South American area. We hypothesize that for MERCOSUR members, deepening commercial ties with China would be a viable option to counterbalance Brazil’s regional leadership, using Uruguayan legislators preferences as a tool for our study. Using logistic models, we conclude that that the probability of supporting a hypothetical free trade agreement with China is larger when politicians viewed MERCOSUR as an obstacle to the interests of his or her country and when he or she had doubts about Brazilian de facto regional leadership. This empirical evidence allows us to reflect on the political consequences of free trade agreements, on Brazil’s leadership in South America, and Brazil-China relations from the perspective of South-South relations in general.
Keywords: MERCOSUR-China relations; FTA with China; Uruguayan Foreign Policy Brazilian leadership
Keywords: MERCOSUR-China relations; FTA with China; Uruguayan Foreign Policy Brazilian leadership
| ngs-2015-0015__1_.pdf |
Mouron, F., Urdinez, F. & Onuki, J. (2016) Framing effects on foreign policy: experimental evidence from emerging countries and the Argentine-Brazilian rivalry. Opinião Publica, Vol. 22(1), 195-218.
Abstract: Civil society plays an increasingly important role in the formulation of foreign policy in emerging countries. This article investigates whether public opinion is sensitive to framing effects regarding foreign policy. Data from a survey experiment with a sample of 1,530 students at the Universidad de Buenos Aires and the Universidad Nacional de Avellaneda, we find that participants are sensitive to framing effects on foreign affairs. The interviewees changed their preferences when stimulated by information regarding Brazilian economic growth and military expenditure in comparison with Argentina. In turn, this effect was more pronounced among a) people who tend to stay less informed regarding foreign affairs and b) individuals who are more nationalistic.
Keywords: framing effects; survey experiment; foreign policy; Argentina; Brazil
Keywords: framing effects; survey experiment; foreign policy; Argentina; Brazil
| revistaop_v22n1.pdf |
2015
2015
Urdinez, F. & Masiero, G. (2015). China and the WTO: Will the Market Economy Status make any difference after 2016? The Chinese Economy, Vol. 48(2), 155-172.
Abstract: China´s Protocol of Accession to the World Trade Organization, signed on December 2001, allowed other country members to consider China as a NME until the end of 2016. The aim of this paper is to answer the following question: Can the Market Economy Status (MES) Recognition be measured in its compliance? The proxy used for that compliance was the number of antidumping investigations initiated per country. The expectation is that countries recognizing Chinese MES would initiate fewer antidumping investigations than countries still treating China as a Non Market Economy. This would explain why the Chinese Government has been campaigning vigorously since 2001 to gain MES among its economic partners. Using count-models we demonstrate that MES had a positive impact in reducing the number of antidumping investigations against Chinese products.
| wto_2016.pdf |
2014
Mouron, F & Urdinez, F. (2014). A Comparative Analysis of Brazil´s Foreign Policy Drivers Towards the USA: Comment on Amorim Neto (2011). Brazilian Political Science Review 8 (2), 92-113. DOI: 10.1590/1981-38212014000100013
Abstract: This paper comments on the main finding of Amorim Neto (2011), namely that Brazil´s power explains why it distanced itself from the country who had been its great ally in the first half of the last century. We propose an alternative explanation based on realist literature in IR. Ultimately we seek to determine whether the variable has behaved in the same way for other South American countries, looking for independent variables that would help us explain a visible pattern in the region: an increasing distancing from United States. at the United Nations General Assembly. We want to contribute to the debate initiated by Amorim Neto (2011) and Schenoni (2012) for future research in the new area of quantitative analysis of Brazilian foreign policy. Using Panel Corrected Standard Error analysis in ten South American countries from 1970 to 2007 we prove empirically that the lower the gap of power between a South American country and the U.S., the lower its alignment with the U.S. in UN General Assembly voting.
| bpsr.pdf |
Urdinez, F., Masiero, G., Ogasavara, M. (2014). China’s Quest for Energy through FDI: New Empirical Evidence. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 12(4), 293-314. DOI:10.1080/14765284.2014.952516
Abstract: China’s current economic development depends heavily on its access to energy resources, and it is increasingly shaping Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) in a quest for resources located abroad. The aim of this paper is to answer the two following questions: How much did the Chinese global quest for energy drive its OFDI between 2005 and 2012? And has the quest for energy been sensitive to the geographical location of the resources? We used data on Chinese OFDI from the China Global Investment Tracker, as well as diverse Host-Countries determinants of previously tested OFDI. We measured the impact of host country energy production in the allocation of investments. Using several multivariate regression models, we demonstrate that energy resources were the main driver of Chinese OFDI in 92 host countries during the studied period, and that there was no sensitivity to the geographical location of the resources.
| jcebs_paper.pdf |
[Book Chapter] Masiero, G. & Urdinez,F. (2014). The Vagueness of “Country Specific Advantage” Construct: Which Host-CSAs Matter for the Chinese OFDI? Progress in International Business Research, 9(1), 327-348. DOI: 10.1108/S1745-886220140000009013
Abstract: The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate that despite the extensive literature on firm specific advantages (FSA) and country specific advantages (CSA), produced since the classical Rugman matrix (1981), little progress has been made in the effort to empirically operationalize the second concept.
Through a review of the literature on International Business referring to the concept of CSA we describe and critically evaluate the vagueness of this concept. First, we present a concise literature review of the construct of CSA, which rescues the “double diamond” theoretical model of Rugman and D’Cruz (1993). Second, we present the results of the bibliographic analysis on the use of the construct by other authors.
We demonstrate the weak conceptual grounding of the concepts through an illustration of the vagueness of the construct through the review of the literature on host CSA attracting Chinese OFDI. Apart from the fact that authors use different sources of data, a main reason for opposite results has to do with the fact that each test host CSA through different indicators. Thus, we propose a list of variables and indicators based on the “double diamond” model and test them empirically.
IB researchers should start conducting serious studies on the home and host CSA attracting investments, defining clear indicators and replicable data based on publicly available information. This chapter is the first to show that the concepts developed by Rugman (1981) and expanded by Rugman and Verbeke (2008) are relevant to advance in the quantitative operationalization of concepts within the theory of International Business.
| pibr_chapter.pdf |
2013
Urdinez, F. (2013). La Economía Política en las relaciones de Argentina y Brasil con China: Las cuatro variables de la agenda. Cadernos Argentina-Brasil,2(1), 1-16.
(Spanish) Resumen: Éste trabajo aborda la agenda político-económica en común de Argentina y Brasil con respecto a China entre los años de 2001 y 2010. Las cuatro variables em la agenda son: (1) la consolidación de las relaciones estratégicas; (2) la expansión del comercio exterior, acompañada del problema de la reprimarización de las exportaciones y del miedo de los sectores industriales a las importaciones de productos chinos; (3) el aumento de Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) china a partir del año 2005 con foco en los recursos naturales; y (4) el creciente rol de los bancos chinos en el financiamiento de proyectos públicos y privados, con foco también en los recursos naturales. De abordaje metodológico descriptivo, el trabajo resume los asuntos más complejos de las relaciones económicas entre estos países y, en este sentido, es el primero que define una agenda de Economía Política para ser discutida en el futuro próximo.
(Spanish) Resumen: Éste trabajo aborda la agenda político-económica en común de Argentina y Brasil con respecto a China entre los años de 2001 y 2010. Las cuatro variables em la agenda son: (1) la consolidación de las relaciones estratégicas; (2) la expansión del comercio exterior, acompañada del problema de la reprimarización de las exportaciones y del miedo de los sectores industriales a las importaciones de productos chinos; (3) el aumento de Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) china a partir del año 2005 con foco en los recursos naturales; y (4) el creciente rol de los bancos chinos en el financiamiento de proyectos públicos y privados, con foco también en los recursos naturales. De abordaje metodológico descriptivo, el trabajo resume los asuntos más complejos de las relaciones económicas entre estos países y, en este sentido, es el primero que define una agenda de Economía Política para ser discutida en el futuro próximo.
| neiba_paper.pdf |
2009
Dutruel, A., & Urdinez, F. (2009). ¿ Hacia la indepedencia teórica de las relaciones internacionales subnacionales y su integración? Studia Politicæ, (18), 89-99.
(Spanish) Resumen: La integración como proceso político constituye un concepto multidimensional cuyas facetas no estatocéntricas aún no han sido exploradas exhaustivamente. En este sentido, el fenómeno presenta niveles alternativos y, a la vez, paralelos al Estado, que ofrecen la oportunidad de explotar un campo de gran riqueza, tanto teóricamente como desde las gestiones públicas y privadas en ámbitos no nacionales. En la aparentemente insondable paradoja entre lo global y lo local, las relaciones internacionales gestionadas desde ámbitos subnacionales contribuyen a entender esta relación como un vínculo de plena simbiosis. No obstante, en la actualidad aún existe una fuerte insistencia teórica para seguir observando estos fenómenos desde un prisma compuesto por los supuestos del Estado como actor central, de la canalización de las relaciones internacionales por la vía diplomática de los Ministerios de Relaciones Exteriores, y de la existencia de una jerarquía insondable entrelos diferentes niveles de gobierno intra e internacionales. El intento conceptualizador enarbolado en estas líneas constituye, en realidad, una transición en la búsqueda de nuevos conceptos y prismas de aprehensión del fenómeno subnacional. Por ello mismo, sin escapar al recurso a los términos y supuestos de las teorías tradicionales que se pretenden superar, el propósito es postular que las relaciones internacionales subnacionales y su integración poseen una configuración tal que demandan un nuevo marco teórico que permita asir la singularidad de este fenómeno.
(Spanish) Resumen: La integración como proceso político constituye un concepto multidimensional cuyas facetas no estatocéntricas aún no han sido exploradas exhaustivamente. En este sentido, el fenómeno presenta niveles alternativos y, a la vez, paralelos al Estado, que ofrecen la oportunidad de explotar un campo de gran riqueza, tanto teóricamente como desde las gestiones públicas y privadas en ámbitos no nacionales. En la aparentemente insondable paradoja entre lo global y lo local, las relaciones internacionales gestionadas desde ámbitos subnacionales contribuyen a entender esta relación como un vínculo de plena simbiosis. No obstante, en la actualidad aún existe una fuerte insistencia teórica para seguir observando estos fenómenos desde un prisma compuesto por los supuestos del Estado como actor central, de la canalización de las relaciones internacionales por la vía diplomática de los Ministerios de Relaciones Exteriores, y de la existencia de una jerarquía insondable entrelos diferentes niveles de gobierno intra e internacionales. El intento conceptualizador enarbolado en estas líneas constituye, en realidad, una transición en la búsqueda de nuevos conceptos y prismas de aprehensión del fenómeno subnacional. Por ello mismo, sin escapar al recurso a los términos y supuestos de las teorías tradicionales que se pretenden superar, el propósito es postular que las relaciones internacionales subnacionales y su integración poseen una configuración tal que demandan un nuevo marco teórico que permita asir la singularidad de este fenómeno.
| studiapoliticae_paper.pdf |
